Ernesto

[yankeeyosh]

After a relatively slow start to the hurricane season with four mostly harmless tropical storms, I am afraid to say that the 'E'-storm, 'Ernesto', might change this. It's only a tropical storm now, but I am EXTREMELY concerned about 'Ernesto'...especially given its forecast projection. It's way, way, way too early to pinpoint where it will eventually make landfall, but the City of New Orleans or Mississippi are not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination, and it could be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by then. The 11 AM forecast forecasts a Cat-3 primed to move into the northern Gulf Coast late next week, Given that next week is the one year anniversary of 'Katrina', and nerves are totally frayed, the timing could not be any worse (is there ever a good time for a cat-3 to make landfall, though?). But if you have any interests along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida, I would monitor 'Ernesto' extremely carefully.

[Benwa]

The name reminds of a wonderful movie, "Ernesto Goes To Camp". And we can't forget "Ernesto, Scared Stupid" and "Ernesto Saves Christmas".

I'm always kind of hoping they'd call the nextJ hurricane Jesus. Take cover, here comes Jesus! I think it would be fun.

[PenforPrez]

We ALL have interest in the Gulf Coast. It's called crude oil. And the oil traders are already bidding up the price of crude oil heavily expecting Ernesto to be a threat to offshore rigs and coastal refineries.

So I'm worried too; I'm expecting another massive gas spike whether Ernesto hits any oil infrastructure or not. :googly:

Paul

[Deni81]

I am concerned now. I just read cnn.com and it could hit northern or central florida. I don't want it to hit New Orleans, but don't want to get us either.

[Umbra]

I'm betting it weakens and is only a category one or two storm when it hits. I would say Florida at this point.

[yankeeyosh]

Looks more and more like the Tampa area will be in the line of fire (which is an extremely vulnerable area). Fortunately, it is weakening as it interacts with Haiti (although that could be devastating for them)...and it will soon move inland over Cuba. But remember 'Charley' in 04. The Gulf is a huge source for fuel, so if it spends any significant time there, and its structure remains intact, it could be a problem.

[spokes]

i am mentioning this topic as an aside because one of the papers here today had an article about New Orleans and one year after - but I wonder if NO was to be hit agian and to be damaged a second time is maybe time to say enough is enough - although the sheer logistics of this would be unimaginable, as how do you shut down a large city - but the sheer cost of fixing the city and the levee seems to say "pull the pin"......

[yankeeyosh]

Looks more like a Miami-ish threat now. Everything depends on Cuba...if it reemerges quickly, it could become a significant storm. If it lingers on the northwest-oriented island longer, it may not be much of anything. Of course, if it departs Cuba too soon, there may not even be a US landfall.

[Tenshi28]

We ALL have interest in the Gulf Coast. It's called crude oil. And the oil traders are already bidding up the price of crude oil heavily expecting Ernesto to be a threat to offshore rigs and coastal refineries.

So I'm worried too; I'm expecting another massive gas spike whether Ernesto hits any oil infrastructure or not. :googly:

Paul

I just read today that BP is pulling most of its non essential workers from the oil platforms in the gulf of Mexico, so I think we might be in for some action in the oil market, once more.

[steph78]

Damn - a gigantic (4-story) single family home I designed last winter is currently under construction on the Gulf coast near the Alabama/Florida border. It's definitely designed to withstand a cat. 3 hurricane in completed form, but I wonder how it would stand up in its current half-completed state if it gets a direct hit? I know it's not my responsibility at this point - the design is done and it's the contractor and owner's deal at this point, but I still feel a little possessive since I invested so much time and energy on that design...

[yankeeyosh]

Looks like the center is getting more diffuse with time...hard to pinpoint where the actual circulation center is...perhaps there are multiple vortices at this point. Nevertheless, it is still a significant threat...especially if a dominant center reemerges off Cuba in short order. The Florida Straits are in the mid-upper 80s...U-Wisconsin shear charts show little in the way of upper level shear...

The track still takes it close to MIA-FLL-WPB. The longitude of recurvature is still important. The eastern limit of Florida is the 80th meridian. Currently, it hasn't crossed the 76th yet, so there is still a distance to go. If it recurves before there, Florida will be on the weaker side...a worst case scenario is one where it moves over the nearby Gulf Stream for a while...as it parallels the coast...intensifies, and then moves onshore as a rapidly intensifying storm.

And NC isn't off the hook, btw...

[PenforPrez]

I just read today that BP is pulling most of its non essential workers from the oil platforms in the gulf of Mexico, so I think we might be in for some action in the oil market, once more.

Crude oil in NY is trading $2 LOWER near the end of the session because Ernesto is now headed AWAY from the Gulf oil rigs.

Paul

[yankeeyosh]

This looks like a combo of 'David' in 1979 and 'Dennis' in 1999 in terms of the track. 'Ernesto' looks like it will come very close to the south Florida coast, if not a bit inland...but it appears more likely that this will only be a TS at landfall, not a hurricane. The place I'm concerned about more is further north...from Charleston (CHS) to Myrtle Beach (MYR) to Wilimington (ILM), which is where it might ultimately wind up. In some ways, you actually want a FL landfall since it will probably be weak...if it stays just offshore, over the Gulf Stream, it could literally explode. And it could be on that ribbon of warm water for several days.

[capella]

I think I will get an extra day off of work this week. :rolleyes: Not sure if it's a blessing or not. I am just north of Orange County, Florida and the coastal part of my county is under hurricane watch. I only hope it brings lots of rain, a day of peace and time to catch up on planning for the next few weeks.

[yankeeyosh]

'Ernesto' looks to be OK for Florida. Just a lot of rain. A slight chance of a hurricane in SC, but not too high. Stay dry Amy and Deni!

[capella]

Well, I get tomorrow off and I hope it rains quite a lot because my yard sure needs it. Just hope it's not too windy.

[Deni81]

Ok, I got the day off work (which is nice since it's my b-day). But it's barely rained.

[capella]

Ok, I got the day off work (which is nice since it's my b-day). But it's barely rained.
Happy Birthday!!! I thought it was tomorrow? Yeppers, it's barely rained here at all. Nice to have a day off though. ;)

[yankeeyosh]

Happy b-day, Deni! :)

Anyway, 'Ernesto' appears to have regrouped...winds are up to 60 mph, and it could be a minimal Hurricane at landfall. At this point, it looks like a landfall will be later tonight between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington. The environment seems quite favorable for further strengthening, and land is the only impediment now....the overall structure looks very good, and there might be an eye forming just east of Savannah, as the cyclone propagates to the NNE. Any deviation westward will bring it inland relatively quickly...near Charleston. But it could possibly make landfall as far east as near Wilm. There are Hurricane watches in effect for parts of the SC coast and most of the NC coast...and if it intensifies a bit further, they will probably be changed to warnings.

[tina1979]

my soon to be ex mother in law is in charleston, sc. I wonder how they are fairing. I guess its time for another email to check in on her

[Starsailor]

Was anyone else in the path of Ernesto?

The wind was brutal here, non-stop till about midnight last night. Sounded like a train speeding through, couldn't sleep. The rainfall wasn't that bad in actuality, just a constant wall of mist really due to the wind (and because of the sheer force behind it, there was some water damage - ceiling leeking, water coming in through the windows even when closed). Yesterday, through the course of it all, countless shingles came off the roof and the siding was ripped off our shed. The wind seemed to just get stronger and stronger and then come to a halt in the night, not die down gradually. Anyway, woke up to several trees in the yard uprooted, including a massive pine, which I found hanging into our front door.

We're without electricity (and therefore phone), internet (currently at library), mobile service, everything here. Someone said we might be without it for at least 4 days. Still, could have been a lot worse! Had to keep reminding my mom of that, she seemed pretty upset over the loss of the aforementioned massive pine.

[yankeeyosh]

Was anyone else in the path of Ernesto?

The wind was brutal here, non-stop till about midnight last night. Sounded like a train speeding through, couldn't sleep. The rainfall wasn't that bad in actuality, just a constant wall of mist really due to the wind (and because of the sheer force behind it, there was some water damage - ceiling leeking, water coming in through the windows even when closed). Yesterday, through the course of it all, countless shingles came off the roof and the siding was ripped off our shed. The wind seemed to just get stronger and stronger and then come to a halt in the night, not die down gradually. Anyway, woke up to several trees in the yard uprooted, including a massive pine, which I found hanging into our front door.

We're without electricity (and therefore phone), internet (currently at library), mobile service, everything here. Someone said we might be without it for at least 4 days. Still, could have been a lot worse! Had to keep reminding my mom of that, she seemed pretty upset over the loss of the aforementioned massive pine.

Well, the remnants, yes. I went to Yankee Stadium, and it was just brutal. Winds were howling, a miserable cold drizzle fell the entire game, and the home team lost after 7 1/2 innings (although I did manage to see Bernie Williams hit one more time! :))

But alas, the season isn't over yet. I would suspect that 'Florence' will pop up in the next few days...and maybe 'Gordon'.