Article: Democrats See Victory in U.S. House Races, Senate Within Reach

[PenforPrez]

Get ready for an interesting election night, folks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aHczjrHrbtxo&refer=home

Just last week, they were rumoring that the Republicans would gain after the London terror arrests, but I don't agree with that. In nearly every state, the economy is the #1 issue, and the Republicans aren't winning that argument.

What's significant to me is that Bloomberg is publishing this article; being a pro-business site as it is, I'm very surprised.

I think the Democrats will take back the House personally. My current Senate scorecard has the Republicans with a two-seat majority. The Republicans have five vulnerable Senate seats: Rhode Island, PA, Ohio, Missouri and Montana. Tennessee is iffy.

I see the Democrats losing in either Missouri or Ohio, but a four-seat gain would be impressive. And the Democrats have a couple of uncomfortable seats; primarily Michigan and Maryland. This will be fun, if you're into politics at all. :)

Paul

[Xander]

In nearly every state, the economy is the #1 issue, and the Republicans aren't winning that argument.
I'm not familiar with "that argument" since I've read the #1 issue is national security. Also, how are Republicans losing the economy issue if the economy is doing so well?

[PenforPrez]

I'm not familiar with "that argument" since I've read the #1 issue is national security. Also, how are Republicans losing the economy issue if the economy is doing so well?

Look at state by state polls at www.rasmussenreports.com. In nearly every state, 25-35% of voters say the economy is the #1 issue (in Michigan, it's 45%). About the only place where that's not true is the most conservative Southern states.

This comment from the CT governor's race is typical of the polls I've seen:

"Our August 9-10 survey showed that 37% of voters in the Constitution State regard the economy as the top issue affecting their vote. Iraq is mentioned second-most often (23%), followed by national security (16%). The two issues can be seen as closely related, but Democrats were more likely to name the war as their top issue (30%), Republicans to name national security (27%).

"In the new poll, we lumped the war and national security as one issue when asking whom the voters trust more, the President or Congressional Democrats. Fifty-percent (52%) say the Democrats, 34% say Bush. Not surprisingly, 72% of Republicans trust Bush more, 79% of Democrats trust congressional Democrats more."

Granted, CT is a Democratic state, but the results are similar elsewhere.

The voters do not see the economy going so well; right now, 30% of likely Michigan voters are worried about losing their jobs. They see record high gas prices, slowing employment growth and the ailing automotive industry, so they're not buying a "good economy" argument. Especially with analysts discussing the possibility of recession next year.

The economy is threatening two Democratic incumbent governors too; Granholm in Michigan and Baldacci in Maine. But in most states, Democrats win the majority of votes where the economy is the #1 concern.

Paul

[WorkInProgress]

Look at state by state polls at www.rasmussenreports.com. In nearly every state, 25-35% of voters say the economy is the #1 issue (in Michigan, it's 45%). About the only place where that's not true is the most conservative Southern states.

This comment from the CT governor's race is typical of the polls I've seen:

"Our August 9-10 survey showed that 37% of voters in the Constitution State regard the economy as the top issue affecting their vote. Iraq is mentioned second-most often (23%), followed by national security (16%). The two issues can be seen as closely related, but Democrats were more likely to name the war as their top issue (30%), Republicans to name national security (27%).

"In the new poll, we lumped the war and national security as one issue when asking whom the voters trust more, the President or Congressional Democrats. Fifty-percent (52%) say the Democrats, 34% say Bush. Not surprisingly, 72% of Republicans trust Bush more, 79% of Democrats trust congressional Democrats more."

Granted, CT is a Democratic state, but the results are similar elsewhere.

The voters do not see the economy going so well; right now, 30% of likely Michigan voters are worried about losing their jobs. They see record high gas prices, slowing employment growth and the ailing automotive industry, so they're not buying a "good economy" argument. Especially with analysts discussing the possibility of recession next year.

The economy is threatening two Democratic incumbent governors too; Granholm in Michigan and Baldacci in Maine. But in most states, Democrats win the majority of votes where the economy is the #1 concern.

Paul

Well, yeah, voters in MI are going to be concerned about losing their jobs--massive layoffs in the auto industry will do that. Who ya vote for is not going to change that.

That is not an "argument." An issue, yes, but not an argument. Or even a discussion. Is there a dialogue about what to do about the economy? I haven't heard one.

[PenforPrez]

That is not an "argument." An issue, yes, but not an argument. Or even a discussion. Is there a dialogue about what to do about the economy? I haven't heard one.

"Argument" probably is a misnomer. Nobody has a comprehensive economic plan; at least the Democrats certainly don't. The Dems are blaming Bush for everything. :rolleyes:

Paul