A Man From Hope, Arkansas...

[Kragthorpe]

You guys want to see something amazing happen in American politics? I don't know how this ends, but the beginning is the stuff of lore. In the West Wing, Jed Bartlet at one point expressed to his Chief of Staff that he got in the race to keep the frontrunners honest on the issues, things caught fire, and there they were in the White House. The potential for that is here:

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2007/11/ia_poll_huckabee_leads.html

One poll now shows Mike Huckabee in the lead in Iowa. A guy with almost no money, no name recognition, and purely a retail appeal may very well win the Iowa caucus, which would definitely cause him to exceed expectations in New Hampshire, and it would probably force Mitt Romney out of the race, leaving Huckabee to battle Giuliani in the South, his home turf on Feb. 5. Huckabee could win this nomination. And though '08 certainly looks like a Democratic year, Huckabee would give the south a reason to turn out like Romney and Giuliani would not and anything could happen in a two-person race. This fascinates me.

[Samwell]

I don't see that happening, but stranger things have happened.

Iowa has a significant evangelical vote and that is Huckabee’s bread and butter (being a minister and former televangelist) so his surge isn't completely out of left field. New Hampshire is a different story. If nothing else a Huckabee win in Iowa would really undercut Romney’s overall momentum and bring the whole field closer together.

Huckabee’s problem is that he’s batshit crazy, which will only become more and more obvious as he draws further scrutiny. If a man that believes the Earth is 6000 years old can be elected president we’re officially doomed…

[Kragthorpe]

You mean like Jimmy Carter? He had a serious evangelical bent in 1976 and 1980.

[Samwell]

You mean like Jimmy Carter? He had a serious evangelical bent in 1976 and 1980.

Huckabee is way more fundamentalist.

[Bman120]

I've been interested in Huckabee since he announced his candidacy. I can't see him getting the nomination but I think he'd make a great vice president.

[PenforPrez]

I've been interested in Huckabee since he announced his candidacy. I can't see him getting the nomination but I think he'd make a great vice president.

I've been hearing Huckabee may be in contention for the VP nod. If Giuliani does secure the nomination, the Republicans will have to nominate a fundamentalist VP. Huckabee doesn't have the campaign structure or the money to win the nomination. But he is a fundamentalist first; which to me is bad enough.

Paul

[Kragthorpe]

First, are we really going to describe Huckabee with the word "fundamentalist?" Because 1) that's the same term used for terrorists and evangelical conservatives are not even remotely terrorists, 2) "fundamentalist" is often a term that people use when they fear and/or are opposed to the person they're describing as fundamentalist, and 3) I'll bet you're merely throwing that term around with no idea of what it is you're trying to describe.

If Rudy wins the nomination, I agree he will likely choose a VP who is more bona fide conservative than Rudy is, but that won't necessarily be a christian conservative -- and what you need to learn and understand is that religion is largely NOT the measure of whether or not one is a conservative. While evangelicals tend to vote conservative, yes, the fact that Rudy is running well with them is indicative of what conservatives tend to be...fiscally responsible, tax-cutting, pro-family, traditional values candidates. Evangelicals fall into the "traditional values" category, but that is a subset of what makes a conservative party. Ironically, most on the left would be apalled if I said "All liberals are homosexuals and therefore homosexuals will select the Democratic candidate." That's not true. But neither is the statement "All conservatives are fundamentalists (or even evangelicals, if you choose), and therefore fundamentalists (or evangelicals) will select the Republican candidate."

[wordsmith]

"Fundamentalist" doesn't actually MEAN any of those things, though.

I won't argue that it's usually used with a connotation other than its definition, but the fact remains.

[Kragthorpe]

Oh?

And tell us what it DOES (presumably you have THE answer) mean.

[Samwell]

First, are we really going to describe Huckabee with the word "fundamentalist?" Because 1) that's the same term used for terrorists and evangelical conservatives are not even remotely terrorists, 2) "fundamentalist" is often a term that people use when they fear and/or are opposed to the person they're describing as fundamentalist, and 3) I'll bet you're merely throwing that term around with no idea of what it is you're trying to describe.

You lose that bet. I know exactly what a fundamentalist is (someone who believes in the literal interpretation of religious and/or political doctrine) and I used the word specifically. True, Islamic fundamentalists have a high profile at the moment, but there absolutely are Christian fundamentalists who believe the Bible is the literal word of God and Huckabee has stated outright that he is one of them. For all his political charm the man believes the earth is 6000 years old, Homo sapiens are not a product of evolution, and that Armageddon is not far off (and, indeed, has a significant upside) because the Bible says so. He’s absolutely a fundamentalist. Any negative connotation you attach to the word is on you.


If Rudy wins the nomination, I agree he will likely choose a VP who is more bona fide conservative than Rudy is, but that won't necessarily be a christian conservative -- and what you need to learn and understand is that religion is largely NOT the measure of whether or not one is a conservative. While evangelicals tend to vote conservative, yes, the fact that Rudy is running well with them is indicative of what conservatives tend to be...fiscally responsible, tax-cutting, pro-family, traditional values candidates. Evangelicals fall into the "traditional values" category, but that is a subset of what makes a conservative party. Ironically, most on the left would be apalled if I said "All liberals are homosexuals and therefore homosexuals will select the Democratic candidate." That's not true. But neither is the statement "All conservatives are fundamentalists (or even evangelicals, if you choose), and therefore fundamentalists (or evangelicals) will select the Republican candidate."

With all due respect, you’re just seeing what you want to see. No one here is confusing being politically conservative with being religious. There is certainly some correlation between the two, but that is why socially liberal Giuliani would need a social (religious) conservative to bring him the evangelical vote, which a Republican would need to win the presidency. Ironically, Huckabee is not all that conservative in the political sense, he leans way more towards big government than most Republicans.

[Kragthorpe]

He's hardly more big government than Romney or Rudy, the two front-runners to date.

Moreover, evangelicals have shown to support Rudy to a much greater degree than expected, as evangelicals now seem to consider national security a moral issue. Regardless of who is on the ticket, a Hilary Clinton nomination would energize this group of voters. Amazingly, the Reps have a fighting chance in 2008 despite every reason not to.

I would also look for Reps at some point to highlight the ridiculous leadership of Nancy Pelosi as a sideswipe at Hilary, suggesting flawed and failed leadership by a woman suggests we'd have more of the same at a higher level should we elect Hilary. And I would look for it to be an effective attack in many places. If Rudy gets the nomination, also look for him to challenge Hilary in California with a huge hand from Arnold Schwarzenegger. While he may never win California, forcing her to spend money there takes money out of places she would otherwise need it. I think if Rudy gets the nomination, Rudy will win the presidency, I'm just not sure he can win the primaries.

[Samwell]

He's hardly more big government than Romney or Rudy, the two front-runners to date.

I'm sure it'll become a bigger issue as his profile rises, but from what I’ve read Huckabee catches a lot of heat from the GOP side for his record on taxes and social spending.

I’m more interested in seeing how his ethics record is addressed. He’s got a whole bunch of baggage in that department too.

Moreover, evangelicals have shown to support Rudy to a much greater degree than expected, as evangelicals now seem to consider national security a moral issue. Regardless of who is on the ticket, a Hilary Clinton nomination would energize this group of voters. Amazingly, the Reps have a fighting chance in 2008 despite every reason not to.

There has been a successful framing of the war on terror and the Iraq war as a theological war, as good vs. evil, which does appeal to many evangelicals. There are still many who have serious reservations about Giuliani's record on abortion, gay rights, and “family values”, with good reason.

I actually agree with you about Hillary. There seems to be a large amount of enmity towards her that would really stoke the fires on the Republican side should she be nominated.

[Kragthorpe]

I'm sure it'll become a bigger issue as his profile rises, but from what I’ve read Huckabee catches a lot of heat from the GOP side for his record on taxes and social spending.

I’m more interested in seeing how his ethics record is addressed. He’s got a whole bunch of baggage in that department too.



There has been a successful framing of the war on terror and the Iraq war as a theological war, as good vs. evil, which does appeal to many evangelicals. There are still many who have serious reservations about Giuliani's record on abortion, gay rights, and “family values”, with good reason.

I actually agree with you about Hillary. There seems to be a large amount of enmity towards her that would really stoke the fires on the Republican side should she be nominated.


Beautiful. He will never catch more heat from conservatives than Rudy or Romney. And no matter what his baggage on ethical issues is...do you think that gets raised toward an Arkansas governor in a year when Hilary Clinton is the target to beat???

And I'm telling you...for evangelicals, national security will trump Rudy's shortcomings, for they consistently poll that it is their most important issue.